Stage 1 Evaluation of existing arterial traffic routes
The intention of the Stage 1 report was to analyse the existing transport system in Nelson and see what it would look like in 2036*. It shows what would happen if Council continued on with a ‘business as usual’ approach. In other words, what if we did nothing differently?
The Stage 1 data will serve as the baseline for later comparison with the preferred option that will be chosen in Stage 4. Once we have chosen an option, we can then look back and compare it to the Stage 1 ‘business as usual’ approach.
The Stage 1 “business as usual” baseline does include some improvements to the passenger transport services between Richmond and Nelson.
* 30 years is the maximum industry accepted timeframe for this type of transport modelling. Although the model was updated in 2009 with the latest population and land use data, data is from the 2006 NZ Census
Stage 1b report - addendum to Stage 1
When the Decision Making Team reviewed the Stage 1 report, they considered further explanation was necessary for the public to understand why the travel modelling data was so different to data in the North Nelson to Brightwater Corridor Study.
The travel modelling data was affected by four key changes in assumptions: population estimates, demographic changes, land use projections and employment patterns.
The 2006 Corridor Study (based on the 2001 transport model) made total population projections that were higher than those available from Statistics NZ. MWH used updated growth rates projections from Statistics NZ, which show lower expectations of future population growth.
The regions aging population, household sizes and a future “gap” in those aged between 18 to 35 years are likely to contribute to more off-peak rather than peak journeys. These trends are reflected more in the current model.
Recent predictions in land use planning for both Nelson and Richmond meant adjusting the locations of the population growth. The majority of growth is expected to occur south of Annesbrook – outside the study area. The residential growth in the Nelson CBD is expected to be matched by CBD employment opportunities and contribute to reduced journey lengths and less use of vehicles.
In line with reduced population growth, the model considered substantially fewer new jobs, and the jobs that are forecast favour Richmond. This has a particular affect on the study area, because a greater spread of employment opportunities are expected to match up to the population distribution forecast. Therefore, work trip lengths will be reduced and may even involve more walking or cycling.
The Stage 1 Report is very large in size, so it has been split into three parts for faster downloading.
Join in on the ongoing conversation with online forums
If you wish to discuss the Stage 1 Arterial Traffic Study report, an online forum is open for you to ask questions, change clarification, or talk with others, including members of the Study Team. Click here to go to the Stage 1 forum.